Economists see July-September GDP near 7.7%, above the RBI's 7.2%

Brokerages expect India's economy to have grown faster than the RBI thought in the July-September quarter (Q2 of FY27). These are forecasts, not official data. The official GDP figure has not been released yet.

The forecasts

• BofA Securities: Q2 GDP growth of 7.7% (raised from 7.2%) and GVA of 8.1%. It sees FY27 at 7.4% and FY28 at 7.5%.
• SBI Research: Q2 GDP of 7.8% against the RBI's 7.2%, GVA of 8% to 8.2%, and nominal GDP growth of 11% to 11.5%.
• Nirmal Bang: FY27 GDP of 7.3%, against 7.7% in FY26. It sees industry at 7.9%, services at 8.4% and agriculture at 3.2%.
• BofA also expects manufacturing growth of 8.1%, industrial output growth of 7.3% and bank credit growth of about 20%.

Company profits

SBI Research says about 2,300 listed non-financial companies saw EBITDA rise 35% and net profit rise 33% in Q2 FY27. It also estimates farm production losses of about 38.6 million tonnes across the Kharif and Rabi seasons.

The catch: prices and rates

• Bloomberg Economics expects RBI rate hikes in December and February.
• Nirmal Bang expects another 50 basis points of hikes over the next two meetings.
• BofA Securities expects hikes of 75 basis points in total over the next six to nine months.

What this means for you

• Strong factory and services growth usually supports hiring, especially in manufacturing, logistics and retail.
• Weak farm output can hurt rural incomes, which matters for workers who send money home from farm areas.
• Higher interest rates can slow hiring in loan-dependent sectors such as real estate and auto retail.

Forecasts differ between firms and can change once the government publishes the official figure.