Retail inflation due today: economists expect about 6% for October
12 November 2026 · 2 min read · HireHo
Based on the Business Today preview published on 11 November 2026. The official figure was due from MoSPI on 12 November. Summarised in our own words.
India releases its October 2026 retail inflation figure today. This article covers what economists expected before the release. The official number may differ, so check the MoSPI release.
What is expected
- September 2026 retail inflation (CPI) was 5.54%.
- An Informist poll of 12 economists expects 6% for October. Bloomberg Economics expects 6.1% and Nirmal Bang 6%.
- If the forecasts hold, October would be the highest reading since October 2024.
- Core inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, is expected at 4.5% (Bloomberg) to 4.7% (Nirmal Bang), up from 4.3% to 4.6% in September.
- Wholesale (WPI) inflation is forecast at 12.35% by Nirmal Bang, up from 11.4%.
Why prices are rising
Food is the main driver. Business Today says cereals, pulses and edible oils are costlier after below-normal rain, and meat, eggs and dairy face higher feed costs. India Ratings expects food inflation of 9.1%, Bloomberg Economics 8.8% and Nirmal Bang 8.7%.
What it could mean for loans
The RBI's upper limit for inflation is 6%. Bloomberg Economics expects the RBI to raise rates in December and February. A rate rise would raise the cost of floating-rate loans. The article does not say by how much EMIs would rise.
What this means for you
- Higher food prices cut what a monthly wage can buy. This hits daily-wage and low-income households first.
- Expect more workers to ask for pay rises or better allowances.
- If you have a floating-rate loan, watch the RBI's next policy decision.